Archive the fixed PSDM recovery preregistration

[AlexanderFengler]

Purpose

• archive the exact August 17 fixed-PSDM v1 preregistration on current dev
• preserve its frozen bytes patch-identically and bind the original freeze commit, SHA256, and exact seed table
• add a separate post-hoc scope statement without changing or relabeling the historical protocol

Evidence boundary

• v1 used HSSM base 11fdc223, runner ebbd68ee, JEAM 1d711275, Python 3.12, and PyTensor float64; current JEAM ede7a4f4 was not rerun
• the scalar/intercept-only smoke used an untruncated HalfNormal(2) prior for t; configured bounds and data-dependent likelihood support are separate contracts
• the bound compact result at d76f995d failed overall with 14/16 truths in their 94% HDIs; this says recovery was not demonstrated under the frozen design and budget, not that fixed PSDM recovery is impossible
• raw datasets, posterior traces, and prior/posterior-predictive draws are not retained, so independent raw re-verification and fixed-PSDM public support or promotion remain blocked
• v2a/v2b require new preregistrations; this PR does not treat later mixing or identifiability hypotheses as v1 conclusions

Verification

• historical replay range-diff: exact (c1c68ef3 = 9d2539cf)
• focused protocol/archive tests: 7 passed
• focused Ruff check and format check: passed
• JSON parse, frozen-spec SHA256, and git diff --check: passed
• hosted: lint/type 51s; Python 3.12 8m17s; Python 3.13 7m26s; Python 3.14 6m40s

Scope

No runner, simulation, optimization, MCMC, result rewrite, dependency change, or current-JEAM evidence run is included.

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