feat(sizing): strata sense-check — market-share-implied TAM cross-check (EDGAR-backed) - #143
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Comparable-revenue sense check for any market: implied TAM = sum(player revenue) / sum(market share), with a revenue floor and a per-player spread that flags inconsistent share estimates. With --concept it compares the implied TAM to the curated market's sourced scenario range (within/above/below), like convergence. Market shares are analyst estimates so the implied TAM is MODELED, never persisted (Q20). New strata.sizing.sense_check module + CLI command; strata size prints a cross-check pointer. 17 unit/CLI tests; ruff + pyright clean; 64 regression tests green.
…sidual, assumptions) Adversarial-review hardening so the market-share-implied TAM survives a TAM expert's critique: a sensitivity band (shares +/-25% -> the estimate is a range, not a point), a leverage factor (1/share) with a warning when combined share is small, an implied residual (rest-of-market revenue), a sourced-vs-estimate count per player, and an explicit assumptions block printed every run. New docs/methods/sense-check-defensibility.md maps the 10 standard expert arguments to how each is handled. 22 sense-check tests; 104 regression tests green; ruff + pyright clean.
…ll fy/fp) sense-check --player 'Name|edgar:TICKER|share' resolves a US-listed company's latest annual revenue live from SEC EDGAR XBRL (regulator-tier, sourced) instead of an analyst estimate, picking the newest annual fact across the Revenues and ASC-606 RevenueFromContract concepts. yfinance is quotes-only so not used; private cos stay estimates; STRATA_OFFLINE refuses live lookups. Fixes a latent EDGAR bug: _parse_fact crashed on present-but-null fy/fp in real companyconcept data. New revenue_lookup module; 6 lookup tests (mocked client) + 2 CLI tests + 2 edgar-parse regression tests; 275 regression tests green; ruff + pyright clean.
…#143) - EDGAR: select annual revenue by the fact's own period end, never fy/filed (a 10-K's comparatives all share the filing's fy + filed date); fiscal-year label derived from end; skip null/zero-val facts; Fact carries start/end; 3 more us-gaap revenue tags; miss error names every tag tried - MODELED (Q20) label is unconditional — shares are always analyst estimates, so an all-sourced-revenue run still carries the marker - Σshare ≥ 100% suppresses the sensitivity band, leverage, and residual (a band that excludes its own point estimate is never emitted); only the revenue floor + overlap warning survive - EDGAR revenue flagged as TOTAL company: inline caveat at resolution + per-player '(filing, total-co)' tag - Warn on a bare share token parsing to exactly 100% (the '1' → 100% trap) - CSV players parse directly into Player (no pipe-DSL round-trip; '|' in a name can't inject fields), optional 'sourced' column, ONE shared EDGARClient across rows; edgar specs enforce the same field count - New MCP tool 'sense_check' (27 tools): mirrors the CLI result, carries machine-readable modeled=true + label, edgar_ticker gated behind STRATA_MCP_LIVE_CONNECTORS=1 like get_connector_data - Docs aligned (≤ 25% leverage threshold, total-co caveat, unconditional MODELED); CHANGELOG [Unreleased] entries Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…nnector, single-source labels, one-request revenue lookup Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ied) Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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What
Adds
strata sense-check: a comparable-revenue cross-check for any market. Implied TAM = Σ(player revenue) / Σ(market share), with:docs/methods/sense-check-defensibility.md).--player 'Name|edgar:TICKER|share'resolves a US-listed company's latest annual revenue live from SEC EDGAR (+ fixes EDGAR null fy/fp parsing).test_edgar_parse_fact.py+ sizing tests.Why
A TAM number with no independent cross-check is just an assertion. This gives every sized market a second, sourced opinion from public-company revenue.
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