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Koren, Miklós, Zsófia Bárány and Ulrich Wohak. 2026. "The Directions of Technical Change." Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18664697
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links:
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- text: "PDF (Zenodo)"
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url: "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18664697"
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statement: ""
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team:
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- "koren"
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- "barany"
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- "wohak"
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grants:
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- erc-advanced-2022
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- elvonal
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title: "The Directions of Technical Change"
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date: "2026-02-16"
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tags:
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- working
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- ai
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- macromanagers
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description: "Generative AI is directional: it performs well in some task directions and poorly in others. We develop a high-dimensional model of AI adoption in which both the worker and the tool have convex production possibility sets, and adoption is a team-production decision. The key sufficient statistics are the worker's pre-AI shadow (autarky) prices; a tool is adopted when its direction is valuable at these prices. As capability improves, adopted directions expand in a cone around autarky prices, with threshold and intensive-margin structure."
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Generative AI is directional: it performs well in some task directions and poorly in others. We develop a high-dimensional model of AI adoption in which both the worker and the tool have convex production possibility sets, and adoption is a team-production decision. The key sufficient statistics are the worker's pre-AI shadow (autarky) prices; a tool is adopted when its direction is valuable at these prices. As capability improves, adopted directions expand in a cone around autarky prices, with threshold and intensive-margin structure.

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